Elections...

First off, let me wish you all a very Merry Christmas. Ultimately, as we are reminded in Mike Huckabee's Christmas ad, the real meaning of this season is the real meaning of Christmas, namely, Christ's birth - not political agenda and the like. I do want to make one point very clear before exploring the current standings of the election: REAL and GOOD change does not begin at the voting booths, but in the heart of anyone of fears the One God.

However with that said, our faith in God should influence all we do, including the elections, and the elections should not be overlooked, being that they are a major part of our society. They do not make change, but show us the results of our change.

When I had wrote of the elections a while back, I made the point that it would be hard for McCain to beat Giuliani. Even if Giuliani gets beat by someone else, it would be hard for McCain to outdebate him, and win the American people over. I brought out the same point with Obama and Clinton, although I did recognize the slick rhetoric of Barack Obama, and showed the possibility of the Democratic race turing into a three-way race if Edwards stays in a strong third place and finds a couple of breaks along the way. But I made the point that Clinton can get away with acting like a jerk, whereas Obama can not. He may knock Clinton down some, but he would not beat out Clinton, unless Clinton made bad campain choices. If her and Obama got into a feud, it would be possible for Edwards to gain momentum just in time for the primaries. On the Republican side, McCain could not beat out Giuliani, but might knock him down some giving rise to the slick Mitt Romney, the (then) upcoming Fred Thompson, or one of the (then) back-pack crew such as Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee.

And as it turned out, the race for 2008 has been every bit as interesting as this and all the more. It was Huckabee, who by wise political moves and a faith-based campain, was the back-pack man who turned into a front runner. Now Mike Huckabee, despite having little money, has as much of a chance as any Republican at winning the nomination. My predictions on McCain seemed true for a while. He slipped dramatically in the polls. Meanwhile, with the help of good speeches and an endorsement by none other than Democratic Senator Joseph Liberman, he has made a comeback. He could gain much ground by winning the votes of the independent moderates. According to some polls, he actually leads Rudy Giuliani, who has fallen behind a good bit in the polls.

What happens is when people get into the lead, they are the subject of talk and debate. People play closer attention to them. When two people get into feuds, it often becomes too nasty for many voters. Giuliani struggled when asked about his religious views. Huckabee always came through with good speeches and powerful rhetoric. He was endorsed by Chuck Norris, and seemed confident and sincere when asked about his faith. Giuliani and Clinton began making unwise political moves - especially the Christmas political ads. Giuliani's ad is known for wanting fruitcake, and Hillary Clinton's ad was known for a confused woman who temporarily misplaced the "universal pre-k" gift. Barack Obama and John Edward's each made videos of emotional appeals wishing us a Merry Christmas. Edwards' ad got to the heart of his campaign with the "Two America's" slogan. In this he did not bring up specific issues, but did wish everyone a Merry Christmas. Obama's was simpler. He and his family simply wished us a Merry Christmas. The much contraversial Mike Huckabee "Bookcase or cross" ad was probably the most beneficial. It struck to the heart of his campain in a politically incorrect way. The lesser heard of Ron Paul Christmas ad was also good, but did not gain enough attentian to matter much anyway.

I thought that Giuliani and Clinton had commited political suicide, but now Clinton has a great lead over Obama. Only someone such as Clinton could get away with an ad like hers. Meanwhile Edwards is rivaling Obama, and the two may try to gang up on the leader Clinton.

Giuliani stays within a shot of the nomination and should not be ruled out. However it is Huckabee and Mitt Romney who are the two front runners now just eight days before the Iowa caucuses. McCain and Giuliani are battling out third and fourth place, while Thompson is in fifth place with a Ron Paul who is slowly creeping up staying in sixth place. The Republican race is up for grabs more than ever. It is hard to tell if Tancredo's drop out is helping his endorsement Mitt Romney, although I think it may be more than we expected given the hole Romney fell in trying to explain how his Father marched with Martin Luther King Jr. Although Tancredo was one of the least likely to win the nomination, his few percent may be all it takes to swing the election. If most of his supporters turned to Romney, it may be just enough to pull Romney ahead of Huckabee. It is really hard to tell.

Huckabee offers what I call "Big Government Conservatism." Even though he said education is a state's issue, he called for more education to the left side of the brain using courses such as arts and music. He may be right, but he sounds contradictory in wanting the Federal Government to do such a thing, while calling education a state's issue. He wanted more government spending in space explorations. Despite the polls do not show it, Tom Tancredo would often get Huckabee in these corners during debates. It is only Huckabee's strong basis and slick rhetoric that has kept him alive. Only time will tell if it brings him through or not.

The top five candidates are really a flip-flop for voters. I have heard several people who have changed their support from one of these candidates to another. If these lost their support to someone such as Duncan Hunter, it could open the door for him or Ron Paul, who has a strong support basis - especially over the internet. Ron Paul is also perhaps a little underated in that he is rasing a lot of money, has a strong appeal to young voters who are not polled much, as well as to third-party affiliates and possibly even independents. If these people pulled together in favor of Ron Paul, then he could have a chance. However as of now, the top five candidates are only switching places. But as Ron Paul continues to gain support slowly while the other candidates switch or lose support, he may have a chance. Iraq, the main but certainly not only difference Ron Paul has with the other candidates, is becoming less of an issue to many of the domestic issues that America is facing. One friend of mine actually said that he disagree's with Ron Paul on foreign policy, but would support him because America needs a Constitutionalist, and that is the exact kind of philosophy Ron Paul offers to his politics. If Ron Paul can appeal to the Christians, then he may have a chance. Although Ron Paul does not talk of his faith as much as Huckabee does, he is as firm as Huckabee when questioned about it.

So all of this is to say that we really do not know who will win. The Democratic race is still uncertain, although my prediction that Hillary Clinton will win seems to be very possibly. It is also possible that it could turn into a three-way race. As I have said before, John Edward's may not be in as bad of a position as some may think. The Republican side is up for grabs as well. I had originally picked Giuliani to win, but that was a hypothetical guess, and it does not seem as likely now, although it is still quite possible. My prediction now would that it would come down to Hillary Clinton against Mike Huckabee, but we really do not know. Each side is coming more and more down to the wire, and more and more a toss-up. We really do not know, but that is perhaps the rare beauty we find in politics.

And in case your wondering, I plan to vote for Ron Paul. I will explain reasons why later on closer to the Alabama caucuses.

What do you think?

God bless America

God bless our Troops

Merry Christmas

December 26, 2007

Ryan Hampton